EU Energy Crisis and the European Energy Market

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

The article analyses the state of the EU energy market during the energy crisis of 2020-2023 and its development taking into account the climate agenda and the European Union’s self-restrictions on the import of primary fossil energy resources. The article examines the role of the climate agenda in the adoption of measures distorting the energy sector and provoking a full-scale energy crisis. It revealed itself in decrease of the reliability of energy supply, which became hostage of weather conditions due to increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy sector. The author scrutinises the main fuel segments of this market, assesses their volatility, and gives a forecast of its development for the period up to 2030-2045; analyses the EU's actions in the context of a shortage of fuel resources, their negative consequences for energy-intensive industries. Trends in rising prices for all types of energy resources, leading to the general deindustrialisation of Europe, provoked by the European energy crisis and the decision of the EU, which abandoned the main supplier of energy resources - Russia, are explored. It is stated that this decision was not provided with alternatives comparable in scope and conditions. Possibilities and prospects for the export of Russian energy resources to EU countries in the context of sanctions are predicted, including the possibility that the goal set by the European Union to abandon Russian fossil fuels by 2027 will not be achieved. It is concluded that the European Union is turning into a region of energy poverty, in which, instead of the declared sustainable energy, European consumers face unstable energy supplies, possibilities of blackouts and significantly increased electricity bills.

About the authors

S. A Roginko

Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Email: roginko@bk.ru
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of Centre for Environment and Development, Leading Researcher of Economic Research Department, Professor, Department of International Business, Faculty of International Economic Relations Moscow, Russia

References

  1. Жуков С.В., Резникова О.Б. (2023) Энергетический переход в США, Европе и Китае: новейшие тенденции. Проблемы прогнозирования. № 4. C. 15–31. doi: 10.47711/0868-6351-19915-31
  2. Жуков С.В., Резникова О.Б. (2024) Кризис электроэнергетики в странах Евросоюза: динамика, движущие силы и перспективы. Проблемы прогнозирования. № 1. C. 90–104. doi: 10.47711/0868-6351-202-90-104
  3. Плакиткина Л.С., Плакиткин Ю.А., Дьяченко К.И. (2024) Современные тренды и прогноз развития угольной промышленности мира и России в условиях трансформации мировой экономики. Часть I. Сложившиеся тренды функционирования угольной промышленности мира и России с начала XXI века. Уголь. № 3. C. 42–49. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2024-3-00-00
  4. Boccara G., Hernandez Diaz D., Heringa B. (2023) A balancing act: Securing European gas and power markets. McKinsey’s Oil & Gas and Electric Power & Natural Gas. 25.04. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/a-balancing-act-securing-europeangas-and-power-markets (accessed: 26.11.2023).
  5. Braw E. (2024) Create Strange Allies. Both Greenpeace and NATO are working against offbook oil tankers. Foreign Policy. 22.04. URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/22/russia-shadowfleet-nato-greenpeace-oil-spills/ (accessed: 25.05.2024).
  6. Hübner C. (2022) New Energy Partnerships and a Boost for Decarbonisation? Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik. 13.06. URL: https://www.kas.de/en/web/auslandsinformationen/artikel/detail/-/content/neue-energiepartnerschaften-und-dekarbonisierungsschub (accessed: 25.11.2023).
  7. IEA (2023) Oil 2023. Analysis and forecast to 2028. URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cc7fd38f-3d68-4796-a958-8dfa3f3ef4a6/Oil2023.pdf (accessed: 26.11.2023).
  8. Jaller-Makarewicz A. (2023) EU turns a blind eye to 21% of Russian LNG flowing through its terminals. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. 29.11. URL: https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-turns-blind-eye-21-russian-lng-flowing-through-its-terminals (accessed: 30.11.2023).
  9. Lee C., Yahya F. Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements. Energy Economics. Vol. 133. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107517
  10. Flowers S., Thompson G., Di Odoardo M. (2023) Building LNG’s resilience through turbulent times. Wood Mackenzie. 02.11. URL: https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/building-lngs-re-silience-through-turbulent-times/ (accessed: 25.11.2023).
  11. Zhukov S.V., Reznikova O.B. (2023) Energeticheskiy perekhod v SSHA, Yevrope i Kitaye: noveyshiye tendentsii [Energy transition in the USA, Europe and China: the latest trends], Problemy prognozirovaniya, 4, pp. 15–31. doi: 10.47711/0868-6351-199-15-31 (In Russian).
  12. Zhukov S.V., Reznikova O.B. (2024) Krizis elektroenergetiki v stranakh Yevrosoyuza: dinamika, dvizhushchiye sily i perspektivy [The electricity crisis in the European Union: dynamics, driving forces and prospects], Problemy prognozirovaniya, 1, pp. 90–104. doi: 10.47711/0868-6351202-90-104 (In Russian).
  13. Plakitkina L.S., Plakitkin Yu.A., Dyachenko K.I. (2024) Sovremennyye trendy i prognoz razvitiya ugol'noy promyshlennosti mira i Rossii v usloviyakh transformatsii mirovoy ekonomiki. Chast' I. Slozhivshiesya trendy funktsionirovaniya ugol'noi promyshlennosti mira i Rossii s nachala XXI veka [Modern trends and forecast for the development of the coal industry in the world and Russia in the context of transformation of the global economy. Part I. Established trends in the functioning of the coal industry in the world and Russia since the beginning of the 21st century], Ugol', 3, pp. 42–49. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2024-3-00-00 (In Russian).
  14. Boccara G., Hernandez Diaz D., Heringa B. (2023) A balancing act: Securing European gas and power markets, McKinsey’s Oil & Gas and Electric Power & Natural Gas, 25.04. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/a-balancing-act-securing-europeangas-and-power-markets (accessed: 26.11.2023).
  15. Braw E. (2024) Create Strange Allies. Both Greenpeace and NATO are working against offbook oil tankers, Foreign Policy, 22.04. URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/22/russia-shadowfleet-nato-greenpeace-oil-spills/ (accessed: 25.05.2024).
  16. Hübner C. (2022) New Energy Partnerships and a Boost for Decarbonisation?, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, 13.06. URL: https://www.kas.de/en/web/auslandsinformationen/artikel/detail/-/content/neue-energiepartnerschaften-und-dekarbonisierungsschub (accessed: 25.11.2023).
  17. IEA (2023) Oil 2023. Analysis and forecast to 2028. URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cc7fd38f-3d68-4796-a958-8dfa3f3ef4a6/Oil2023.pdf (accessed: 26.11.2023).
  18. Jaller-Makarewicz A. (2023) EU turns a blind eye to 21% of Russian LNG flowing through its terminals, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 29.11. URL: https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-turns-blind-eye-21-russian-lng-flowing-through-its-terminals (accessed: 30.11.2023).
  19. Lee C., Yahya F. Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements, Energy Economics, 133. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107517
  20. Flowers S., Thompson G., Di Odoardo M. (2023) Building LNG’s resilience through turbulent times, Wood Mackenzie, 02.11. URL: https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/building-lngs-resilience-through-turbulent-times/ (accessed: 25.11.2023).

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML

Copyright (c) 2024 Russian Academy of Sciences